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Automatic Prediction Of Stock Price Direction B...



A probabilistic neural network that accounts foruncertainty in weights and outputs. A standard neural networkregression model typically predicts a scalar value;for example, a model predicts a house priceof 853,000. In contrast, a Bayesian neural network predicts a distribution ofvalues; for example, a model predicts a house price of 853,000 with a standarddeviation of 67,200. A Bayesian neural network relies onBayes' Theoremto calculate uncertainties in weights and predictions. A Bayesian neuralnetwork can be useful when it is important to quantify uncertainty, such as inmodels related to pharmaceuticals. Bayesian neural networks can also helpprevent overfitting.




Automatic prediction of stock price direction b...



A unidirectional language model would have to base its probabilities onlyon the context provided by the words "What", "is", and "the". In contrast,a bidirectional language model could also gain context from "with" and "you",which might help the model generate better predictions.


At roughly the same time, big changes were underway in the macroeconomic world. I think it all started with the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74, which caused the price of a barrel of oil to jump from roughly $24 to almost $65 in less than a year. This spike raised the cost of many goods and ignited rapid inflation. Because the U.S. private sector in the 1970s was much more unionized than it is now and many collective bargaining agreements contained automatic cost-of-living adjustments, rising inflation triggered wage increases, which exacerbated inflation and led to yet more wage increases. This seemingly unstoppable upward spiral kindled strong inflationary expectations, which in many cases became self-fulfilling, as is their nature.


When training a model for forecasting future values, ensure all the features used in training can be used when running predictions for your intended horizon. For example, a feature for current stock price could massively increase training accuracy. However, if you intend to forecast with a long horizon, you may not be able to accurately predict future stock values corresponding to future time-series points, and model accuracy could suffer.


No quantiles are specified here, so only the point forecast is generated. You may want to understand the predictions at a specific quantile of the distribution. For example, when the forecast is used to control inventory like grocery items or virtual machines for a cloud service. In such cases, the control point is usually something like "we want the item to be in stock and not run out 99% of the time". The following sample demonstrates how to specify forecast quantiles, such as 50th or 95th percentile:


If you are among the 50% of Americans who own stock, I am sure you have had some sleepless nights thinking about the future price of your investments. You may try and calm your fears by reading predictions by economists and other investment professionals -- but how do they come up with their forecasts? One way is by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.


As stated earlier, ARIMA(p,d,q) are one of the most popular econometrics models used to predict time series data such as stock prices, demand forecasting, and even the spread of infectious diseases. An ARIMA model is basically an ARMA model fitted on d-th order differenced time series such that the final differenced time series is stationary.


The Consumer Confidence Survey reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. This monthly report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. Data are available by age, income, 9 regions, and top 8 states.


Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess myriad methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.


The efficient market hypothesis posits that stock prices are a function of information and rational expectations, and that newly revealed information about a company's prospects is almost immediately reflected in the current stock price. This would imply that all publicly known information about a company, which obviously includes its price history, would already be reflected in the current price of the stock. Accordingly, changes in the stock price reflect release of new information, changes in the market generally, or random movements around the value that reflects the existing information set. Burton Malkiel, in his influential 1973 work A Random Walk Down Wall Street, claimed that stock prices could therefore not be accurately predicted by looking at price history. As a result, Malkiel argued, stock prices are best described by a statistical process called a "random walk" meaning each day's deviations from the central value are random and unpredictable. This led Malkiel to conclude that paying financial services persons to predict the market actually hurt, rather than helped, net portfolio return. A number of empirical tests support the notion that the theory applies generally, as most portfolios managed by professional stock predictors do not outperform the market average return after accounting for the managers' fees.


Fundamental analysis is built on the belief that human society needs capital to make progress and if a company operates well, it should be rewarded with additional capital and result in a surge in stock price. Fundamental analysis is widely used by fund managers as it is the most reasonable, objective and made from publicly available information like financial statement analysis.


Technical analysts or chartists are usually less concerned with any of a company's fundamentals. They seek to determine possibilities of future stock price movement largely based on trends of the past price (a form of time series analysis). Numerous patterns are employed such as the head and shoulders or cup and saucer. Alongside the patterns, techniques are used such as the exponential moving average (EMA), oscillators, support and resistance levels or momentum and volume indicators. Candle stick patterns, believed to have been first developed by Japanese rice merchants, are nowadays widely used by technical analysts. Technical analysis is rather used for short-term strategies, than the long-term ones. And therefore, it is far more prevalent in commodities and forex markets where traders focus on short-term price movements. There are some basic assumptions used in this analysis, first being that everything significant about a company is already priced into the stock, other being that the price moves in trends and lastly that history (of prices) tends to repeat itself which is mainly because of the market psychology.


With the advent of the digital computer, stock market prediction has since moved into the technological realm. The most prominent technique involves the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic algorithms (GA).[citation needed] Scholars found bacterial chemotaxis optimization method may perform better than GA.[4] ANNs can be thought of as mathematical function approximators. The most common form of ANN in use for stock market prediction is the feed forward network utilizing the backward propagation of errors algorithm to update the network weights. These networks are commonly referred to as backpropagation networks. Another form of ANN that is more appropriate for stock prediction is the time recurrent neural network (RNN) or time delay neural network (TDNN). Examples of RNN and TDNN are the Elman, Jordan, and Elman-Jordan networks. (See the Elman And Jordan Networks.)


Of late, the majority of academic research groups studying ANNs for stock forecasting seem to be using an ensemble of independent ANNs methods more frequently, with greater success. An ensemble of ANNs would use low price and time lags to predict future lows, while another network would use lagged highs to predict future highs. The predicted low and high predictions are then used to form stop prices for buying or selling. Outputs from the individual "low" and "high" networks can also be input into a final network that would also incorporate volume, intermarket data or statistical summaries of prices, leading to a final ensemble output that would trigger buying, selling, or market directional change. A major finding with ANNs and stock prediction is that a classification approach (vs. function approximation) using outputs in the form of buy(y=+1) and sell(y=-1) results in better predictive reliability than a quantitative output such as low or high price.[5]


Tobias Preis et al. introduced a method to identify online precursors for stock market moves, using trading strategies based on search volume data provided by Google Trends.[6] Their analysis of Google search volume for 98 terms of varying financial relevance, published in Scientific Reports,[7] suggests that increases in search volume for financially relevant search terms tend to precede large losses in financial markets.[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]Out of these terms, three were significant at the 5% level (z > 1.96). The best term in the negative direction was "debt", followed by "color".


The activity in stock message boards has been mined in order to predict asset returns.[20] The enterprise headlines from Yahoo! Finance and Google Finance were used as news feeding in a Text mining process, to forecast the Stocks price movements from Dow Jones Industrial Average.[21] 041b061a72


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